Sajid Raina
Srinagar, Aug 30: As natural disasters grip Jammu and Kashmir, claiming more than 150 lives this month, meteorologists say the impact of cloudbursts can be reduced through high-resolution weather monitoring, strengthened early warning systems, advanced forecasting models, sustainable land management, regulated construction, and community preparedness.
The government, researchers and other experts say structural engineering for hill construction and public awareness campaigns are needed to ensure a timely response to sudden rainfall events
This August, more than 25 cloudbursts and nine landslides have been recorded in Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in 150 deaths, over 300 injuries, and many missing persons.
The study, ‘Assessment and Review of Hydrometeorological Aspects for Cloudburst and Flash Flood Events in the Third Pole Region (Indian Himalaya)’, examines the growing vulnerability of Himalayan states, including Jammu and Kashmir, to extreme weather events.
The region’s fragile mountains, steep slopes, and variable climate make it prone to cloudbursts, flash floods, and rainfall-induced landslides. Past events, such as the 2010 Leh cloudburst and 2014 Udhampur floods, caused significant fatalities and property damage.
The study identifies several contributing factors. Climate change increases atmospheric moisture and rainfall intensity, while the interaction of monsoon currents with western disturbances triggers sudden downpours. Orographic lifting due to high mountains amplifies rainfall, and unplanned construction, deforestation, and land-use changes destabilise slopes. Limited meteorological data and sparse weather stations further restrict prediction and early warning capabilities.
To reduce risks, the study notes that advanced forecasting models such as WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) and HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model) are used to predict and analyse cloudbursts in the region. The WRF model simulates weather patterns at high resolution, helping forecast rainfall, cloud formation, winds, and temperature over specific areas.
HYSPLIT tracks the movement of air parcels and moisture, showing how winds carry moisture toward the Himalayas, which can trigger sudden heavy rainfall. Together, these models provide meteorologists with detailed information on where and how intense a cloudburst might be, supporting early warning and disaster preparedness.
It also calls for sustainable land management, regulated urban growth, and integration of scientific research into policy. Without these measures, Jammu and Kashmir could see an increasing frequency and intensity of cloudbursts and related disasters in the future.
“The active monsoon, moisture carried by easterly winds, and interaction with western disturbances trigger cloudbursts,” said Dr Mukhtar Ahmad, Director of the Meteorological Department (MeT).
He said that rising temperatures and increased moisture flow towards the Himalayas increase the likelihood of such events. The MeT forecasts heavy rainfall and potential cloudbursts in Jammu, Reasi, Udhampur, and the Chenab Valley until September 3.
Meteorologist Sonam Lotus said the Western Himalayas, including Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, are prone to flash floods and landslides during the southwest monsoon, which lasts from mid-June to mid-September.
He added that early warning systems are critical but cannot fully prevent loss, and public awareness remains central to minimising casualties.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif said that India has early-warning systems for heavy rainfall and flash floods, but there is no precise ‘cloudburst alarm’ for individual villages.
The India Meteorological Department’s Doppler radars, satellite nowcasts, and the South Asia Flash Flood Guidance System can identify dangerous cells 30–180 minutes in advance and issue district- or block-level alerts.
On minimising damage, Arif said that while a cloudburst cannot be prevented, its impact can be reduced.
“Measures include mapping high-risk gullies above settlements, building and maintaining overflow channels and debris barriers, installing dense networks of rain gauges and river sensors linked to automatic sirens, enforcing no-build zones on fans and streambeds, and conducting drills for five-minute evacuations to higher ground, particularly at night and along pilgrim routes. In areas with extreme risk, relocation may be necessary,” he said.
These steps, Arif said, can help reduce casualties during sudden rainfall events.
