Winter expected to arrive early in J&K: Sonam Lotus

Srinagar, Oct 8: Renowned weatherman and former Director of the Meteorological Centre Srinagar, Sonam Lotus, on Wednesday said that winter is expected to arrive earlier than usual this year in Jammu and Kashmir; however, it is still too early to accurately predict how harsh or mild the season will be.
He said that due to early snowfall and the onset of icy winds the temperatures could drop sooner than usual.
Lotus cautioned against premature speculation about the intensity of the coming winter, saying it is too early to accurately predict how harsh or mild the season will be.
“As per current meteorological patterns, winter may begin earlier than usual, and Jammu and Kashmir could experience below-normal temperatures in October and November due to early snowfall and cold winds,” Lotus said.
He said, “People are saying on social media that La Niña will occur and the winter will be very harsh. As of now, we cannot confirm this,” Lotus explained.
“We cannot accurately forecast weather patterns two months ahead. We can predict with reliability only up to three weeks in advance, not beyond that,” he emphasized.
According to Lotus, above-normal snowfall is likely during October and November, based on present meteorological models.
However, he reiterated that these are short-term indications, not full-season forecasts.
“As per the present model, there are chances of above-normal snowfall in October and November in Jammu and Kashmir. But it would be wrong to conclude that this means a harsh winter overall,” he clarified.
When asked about expected temperature drops during the peak winter months, Lotus said that temperatures in December and January could fall to around minus 8 degrees Celsius especially in higher reaches, though extreme dips below that are unlikely at this stage.
“In December and January, temperatures can reach up to minus 8°C, but going much below that is not anticipated right now,” he said.
Lotus also urged both the public and the administration to stay prepared for winter-related challenges, including snowfall, cold waves, and disruptions in transport and power supply.
“People and the administration should be well-prepared with contingency plans,” he advised. “Early preparation helps minimize hardship once the full winter sets in.” (KINS)