Sajid Raina
Srinagar, Mar 2: Jammu and Kashmir has recorded its seventh consecutive winter rainfall deficit, with the December 2025–February 2026 period ending 65 per cent below normal.
According to the data, the region received 100.6 mm of precipitation during the core winter months against a normal of 284.9 mm, marking one of the driest seasons in recent years.
Data revealed that December 2025 recorded only 13.0 mm rainfall against a normal of 59.4 mm, a deficit of 78 per cent. January 2026 fared relatively better with 73.4 mm precipitation against a normal of 95.1 mm, reducing the deficit to 23 per cent due to some western disturbance activity.
However, February saw a sharp collapse, recording just 14.2 mm against a normal of 130.4 mm — an 89 per cent shortfall — pulling down the seasonal average significantly.
The 2025–26 winter now ranks among the most deficient in the past seven years. Since 2019–20, every winter season in Jammu and Kashmir has ended below normal.
The deficits recorded over the past winters include minus 20 per cent (2019–20), minus 37 per cent (2020–21), minus 8 per cent (2021–22), minus 34 per cent (2022–23), minus 54 per cent (2023–24), minus 45 per cent (2024–25), and minus 65 per cent (2025–26).
In contrast, earlier years such as 2016–17 and 2018–19 had recorded surplus winters.
District-wise data indicated widespread deficiency across both Kashmir and Jammu divisions. In Kashmir, Srinagar recorded 84.2 mm rainfall against a normal of 236.5 mm, a 64 per cent deficit.
Shopian saw one of the steepest shortfalls at 82 per cent below normal, while Kulgam recorded an 80 per cent deficit. Kupwara, Budgam and Anantnag also reported deficits exceeding 60 per cent.
In the Jammu division, Kishtwar recorded a 90 per cent deficit, while Kathua and Jammu districts were 66 per cent and 64 per cent below normal respectively. Ramban and Udhampur also reported significant shortfalls.
Experts said winter precipitation is critical for the Union Territory as snowfall in higher reaches feeds rivers and streams, recharges groundwater and supports irrigation during the spring and summer months. Consecutive deficient winters may affect snow accumulation and meltwater availability later in the year. “This year’s winter passing away without any significant weather activity can trigger water crisis across Jammu and Kashmir,” they added.
They attributed the trend to changes in the frequency and intensity of western disturbances, which are the primary source of winter precipitation in the region.
They also said the situation would be monitored in the coming months, particularly in view of its potential impact on agriculture, horticulture and water resources.
