High-risk glacial lakes identified in Kashmir Himalaya

Srinagar, Mar 31: Minister for Relief and Disaster Management on Tuesday informed the Legislative Assembly that a recent study has identified high-risk glacial lakes in Kashmir Himalayas.
The Minister said that a recent scientific study conducted by the University of Kashmir has identified a number of glacial lakes in the Kashmir Himalaya with varying levels of susceptibility to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).
The Minister, while replying to a question by MLA Tanvir Sadiq, said, “The study carried out by researchers from the Department of Geo-informatics and published in the reputed Journal of Glaciology, examined 155 glacial lakes using hydro-geomorphic indicators such as lake expansion rates, dam stability, and surrounding environmental conditions. Based on these parameters, five lakes—Bramsar Lake, Chirsar Lake, Nundkol Lake, Gangabal Lake and Bhagsar Lake—have been categorized under the “very high susceptibility” class relative to others in the region.”
However, the Minister clarified that such classification does not indicate immediate danger. “A lake marked as highly susceptible does not mean it is currently unstable or on the verge of breaching. It only implies that under certain triggering conditions, it may be more prone to an outburst compared to other lakes,” he said.
The study also carried out a preliminary geospatial assessment to evaluate downstream exposure. It identified habitations and critical infrastructure located along potential flood paths from these lakes. According to the findings, the five high-susceptibility lakes together pose potential risk to around 2,704 buildings, nearly 15 major bridges, stretches of road networks, and one hydropower project situated downstream.
Describing the study as a “baseline assessment,” the Minister said it provides an initial framework for prioritizing vulnerable areas for more detailed scientific investigations. He emphasized that accurate risk assessment of GLOFs—such as predicting flood magnitude, velocity, and warning time—requires precise data on lake volumes, which can only be obtained through field-based bathymetric surveys.
In this regard, he informed that researchers at the University of Kashmir have already initiated steps to bridge this gap. The department has procured a high-precision RTK-enabled robotic echo-sounding boat with financial assistance from the Ministry of Earth Sciences. This advanced equipment will be used to conduct detailed bathymetric surveys of vulnerable glacial lakes in the western Himalaya starting in 2026.
“These efforts will generate critical scientific data for lake-volume estimation, hydrodynamic modelling, and more reliable downstream risk assessments,” the Minister said, adding that such data will significantly enhance disaster preparedness and evidence-based planning in the region.
Outlining the future course of action, the Minister said the government plans to ensure continuous monitoring of high-risk lakes through satellite-based remote sensing and targeted field studies. He also highlighted the need for installing early-warning systems, developing eco-zonation plans for downstream areas, and integrating GLOF risk scenarios into district-level disaster management frameworks.
He further noted that researchers are already working on developing specialized early-warning systems tailored for mountainous environments. These systems aim to integrate satellite monitoring, field observations, sensor-based hydro-meteorological data, and real-time communication networks to ensure timely detection and dissemination of hazard alerts.
The Minister reiterated the government’s commitment to strengthening scientific research and institutional coordination to mitigate potential GLOF risks and safeguard vulnerable communities across the Kashmir Valley. (KNO)