Jahangeer Ganaie
Srinagar, Jul 15: India which reached 1211 million in 2011 and projected to reach 1363 million in 2021 was one of the youngest in the world, with 27.3 percent of its population aged 15-29 years. In terms of absolute numbers, between 2011 and 2036, because of the declining fertility and increasing life-expectancy, the population pyramid of the country will undergo a shift, reveals a report issued by the Ministry of statistics and programme implementation.
As per the National Youth Policy 2014, persons between the age group 15-29 years are classified as youth.
“While the proportion of the population aged less than 15 years is projected to decline, the elderly in the population is expected to increase. The youth population is expected to increase initially but will start to decline in the latter half of 2011-2036 period. The total youth population increased from 222.7 Million in 1991 to 333.4 Million in 2011 and is projected to reach 371.4 Million by 2021 and thereafter decrease to 345.5 million by 2036,” it said.
“The upside is that India still continues to be a very young country. It is home to a fifth of the world’s youth demographic and this population advantage could play a critical role in achieving the nation’s ambitious target to become a 5 trillion economy,” it added.
“The proportion of youth population to total population reached the peak in 2011 and then started to decline in most of the States of the country but in Kerala, the peak was attained in 1991, and the decline is predicted to be by 11 percentage points from 1991 to 2036.
“In Tamil Nadu also, the youth population is lower in 2011 as compared to 2001 and shows a declining trend since then. Elderly population for the state of Kerala has been projected to be 16.5 percent in comparison to 22.1 percent of youth population in 2021 and their share (22.8%) is projected to cross the share of youth (19.2%) in total population by 2036. Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh are also projected to experience elderly population more than the youth by 2036. States of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh experienced rise in proportion of youth population to total population till 2021 and then is expected to start declining.
These two states along with Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are projected to have more than half (52%) the country’s youth. As per projection of 2021 population, the States with lower proportion of youth population as compared to All India are Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and West Bengal. It can be seen that in almost all the states, proportion of female population is below the proportion of male population in youth but in elderly, the proportion of female population surpasses the proportion of male population. One of the main reasons responsible for the pattern is better life expectancy of females in the country, the report said.
As per data, the percentage of youth (15-29) in India will decline from 26.6 percent in 1991, 26.6 percent in 2001, 27.5 percent in 2011, 27.9 percent in 2016, 27.3 percent in 2021, 25.8 percent in 2026, 24.1 percent in 2031 to 22.7 percent in 2036.
It said that the percentage of youth in Jammu and Kashmir will decline from 27.9 percent in 2001, 27.8 percent in 2011, 29.3 percent in 2021, and 25.4 percent in 2026 to 21 percent in 2036.
So as per data, the population of youth in Jammu and Kashmir will decline faster than the National percentage.
