Amir Tantray
Srinagar, Aug 31: As the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections approach, the Chenab Valley region is poised to witness a fierce contest, with three key seats—Doda, Bhaderwah, and Kishtwar—emerging as the focal points of political intrigue. Of the five seats left in the seat-sharing arrangement between the National Conference (NC) and the Congress, three are in this politically sensitive region.
Despite their alliance, both parties have decided to field candidates against each other on these crucial seats, each eyeing the decisive four percent swing vote that could determine the outcome.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had previously secured all three seats in the 2014 assembly elections with a narrow margin, making this region a stronghold for the party. However, the upcoming elections could see a shift in the balance of power, as both NC and Congress seek to carve out their share of the Hindu-Muslim vote split that could weaken the BJP’s hold.
Political analysts suggest that the alliance between NC and Congress might be more of a “friendly match,” allowing both parties to demonstrate their strength in the region while still challenging the BJP. This is particularly relevant given the results of the 2014 elections, where the BJP emerged victorious in Kishtwar, Doda, and Bhaderwah with margins of 4-6 percent.
The stakes are even higher now, as NC and Congress aim to disrupt the BJP’s dominance in these areas. The contest in Chenab Valley has been further complicated by the entry of Ghulam Nabi Azad’s party, the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), which could fragment the vote bank further. GM Saroori, who won the Indrawal seat for Congress in 2014, has since defected to DPAP, leaving Congress in a vulnerable position.
As the nomination process for the first phase of the assembly elections concludes, a direct contest is anticipated between the BJP, Congress, People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and NC across the six seats of Chenab Valley—Doda, Doda West, Bhaderwah, Kishtwar, Pader Nagseni, and Indrawal. The recent delimitation has also introduced two new seats, Doda West and Pader Nagseni, where elections will be held for the first time.
In Doda, NC has nominated Khalid Najeeb Sohrawardy, despite his previous three losses, while the BJP has fielded Gajay Singh Rana. Congress is banking on DDC member Nadeem Sharif to secure the Bhaderwah seat, where NC has nominated Mehboob Iqbal, and the BJP has put forward former MLA Dilip Parihar.
Kishtwar will see a multi-cornered contest, with NC’s Sajjad Kichulu, PDP’s Firdous Tak, and BJP’s new face, Shagun Parihar, fighting for the seat. The absence of a Congress candidate here indicates strategic decision-making, focusing resources where they believe they have a stronger chance.
The elections in Chenab Valley will be closely watched, as they could significantly influence the overall political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir. With both established and new faces in the fray, the region is set for an electoral showdown that promises to be as unpredictable as it is decisive.
