NC-Congress alliance likely to win 3 seats, BJP in better position to win 1 seat

Srinagar, Sep 24: With the Rajya Sabha elections announced by the Election Commission of India (ECI) on Wednesday, the political arithmetic in the newly constituted Jammu & Kashmir Legislative Assembly indicates a clear advantage for the National Conference-Congress alliance, which is expected to secure three of the four available seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), meanwhile, is comfortably positioned to claim one seat.
According to a notification issued by the poll body on Wednesday, three separate elections will be held to fill the four vacant seats-one election each for the first two seats, and a combined election for the remaining two.
The Jammu & Kashmir Assembly comprises 90 seats, of which two-Budgam and Nagrota-are currently vacant. This brings the effective strength of the House to 88, including the seat held by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) MLA Mehraj Malik, who is currently under detention under the Public Safety Act (PSA).
The combined strength of the NC, Congress, CPI (M), and independent MLAs supporting the alliance stands at 53-down from 54 following Mehraj Malik’s withdrawal of support to the Omar Abdullah-led government. The alliance includes 41 MLAs from NC, six from Congress, five independents, and one from CPI (M).
The BJP holds 28 seats. In addition, six MLAs from smaller Kashmir-based parties and independents form a non-BJP opposition bloc in the House. These members maintain a neutral stance, distancing themselves from both the treasury benches and the BJP. This group includes three MLAs from the PDP, one from the PC, and two independents-Shabir Kullay (MLA Shopian) and Sheikh Khursheed(MLA Langate), who is considered independent as his party is not registered with the Election Commission of India. With Mehraj Malik added to this bloc, the total rises to seven.
Based on current numbers, the NC-led alliance is expected to win the first two seats-each to be decided through separate elections-given its 53-member strength compared to BJP’s 28. These two seats could go uncontested if the BJP decides not to field candidates.
For the third and fourth seats, which will be decided through a combined election, voting will take place only if the NC-led alliance chooses to contest the fourth seat.
The NC-led alliance is projected to secure 29 first-preference votes for the third seat, leaving it with 24 second-preference votes for the fourth seat. The BJP, with 28 votes, is favoured to win the fourth seat.
The six MLAs from PDP, PC, and independents are expected to play a minimal role in the elections. They have been vocal critics of both NC and BJP.
There are also chances of cross-voting, considering that seven independent MLAs-five from the ruling alliance and two from the opposition-are not required to show their marked ballot papers to any authorized agent.
Mehraj Malik, who is in detention under the Public Safety Act (PSA), is eligible to vote in the Rajya Sabha elections. Section 62(5) of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, does not bar a person from voting if they are under preventive detention. It only prohibits voting by individuals confined in prison or in lawful police custody-whether serving a sentence or otherwise.
Who are frontrunners for party tickets?
Sources in National Conference indicate that Dr. Farooq Abdullah and Sajad Kichloo are the frontrunners for the party ticket.
The Congress is also likely to seek one seat out of the three that the alliance is poised to win. The grand old party could field a candidate from mainland Jammu or a sitting MLA from South Kashmir, if the NC concedes a seat to it.
If the NC decides to contest the fourth seat, it may field a young face from South Kashmir to maintain its grip in the region, where it won 10 out of 16 seats in the last election.
The BJP is expected to keep its cards close to its chest until the last moment. It could field either a former MLA or a new face, given its reputation for springing surprises.
Sunil Kumar Sharma, the BJP’s tactician who played a crucial role in the party’s victories during the last Assembly elections across the entire Chenab Valley, is expected to play a key role in finalizing the party’s strategy for the polls. (KNO)