Sajid Raina
Srinagar, Dec 10: Jammu and Kashmir has entered a severe rainfall deficit phase, with the region recording just 6.1 mm of precipitation between November 1 and December 9 against the expected 43.1 mm, resulting in an 86 per cent shortfall, Kashmir Weather reported on Wednesday.
According to the data, the region has experienced a significant rainfall deficit between November 1 and December 9, with most districts recording substantially below-normal precipitation.
In the Kashmir Division, Anantnag received 10.7 mm against a normal of 43.7 mm (-75.5%), Budgam 7.5 mm (-77.5%), Bandipora 9.0 mm (-81.5%), Baramulla 5.4 mm (-87.7%), Ganderbal 4.8 mm (-88%), Kulgam 6.1 mm (-90.5%), Kupwara 14.0 mm (-77.4%), Pulwama 11.4 mm (-60.7%), Shopian 3.7 mm (-90.5%), and Srinagar 7.2 mm (-83.3%), resulting in a mean actual rainfall of 7.98 mm compared to the normal 44.7 mm, translating to a deficit of 82.1%.
In the Jammu Division, Doda recorded 4.8 mm (-90.2%), Jammu 6.7 mm (-71.5%), Kathua and Kishtwar both 0 mm (-100%), Poonch 3.5 mm (-91.4%), Rajouri 2.2 mm (-93.5%), Ramban 19.4 mm (-72.9%), Reasi 21.2 mm (-31.2%), Samba 1.0 mm (-88%), and Udhampur 7.6 mm (-83.1%), with a mean actual rainfall of 6.64 mm against a normal of 38.11 mm, indicating a deficit of 82.6%.
Faizan Arif of Kashmir Weather said the dry spell has persisted since November 5, with almost no rainfall across most parts of the Union Territory. “The prolonged absence of precipitation has significantly affected river flows, vegetation, and overall moisture levels,” he said.
The water level of the Jhelum River at Sangam has fallen to –0.59 ft, slipping below the zero-gauge mark. While this is not the lowest level historically recorded, it is among the lowest readings observed in recent years. “With no major rainfall or snowfall forecast over the next seven days, river levels could decline further,” Arif added.
The ongoing dry conditions have also heightened the risk of forest fires across many vulnerable zones in the region. “The combination of dry vegetation, lack of soil moisture, and daytime heating has created favourable conditions for fire outbreaks,” he said.
Regarding broader climatic drivers, Arif cautioned against over-attributing the current dry spell to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) or ENSO patterns.
“Linking the MJO directly to enhanced Western Disturbance activity after December 25 is misleading. Currently, the MJO is in Phase 8, close to the centre, and its amplitude is weak. A weak MJO has minimal influence on mid-latitude weather. Even if it lingers around Phase 8, there is no direct daily link to precipitation over Jammu and Kashmir,” he explained.
Arif added that while statistical studies suggest that certain MJO phases could enhance seasonal precipitation across Southwest Asia and the Middle East, this signal is probabilistic rather than a guarantee for specific rainfall events in the region.
Similarly, while some have attributed last year’s dry winter to El Niño, this year’s La Niña does not automatically imply a wetter winter.
“Atmospheric dynamics involve multiple interacting factors, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic circulation, the subtropical jet, Indian Ocean conditions, Eurasian snow cover, and internal variability. ENSO events merely tilt the odds for certain patterns rather than dictate them,” he said.
Minimum temperatures recorded today in the Kashmir region include Srinagar at -1.9°C, Gulmarg at -5.5°C, and Zojila Pass at -18.0°C, while Jammu recorded 8.4°C and Banihal 5.4°C. In Ladakh, Leh registered –5.5°C and Kargil –5.1°C.
Arif said Western Disturbances have already increased in frequency and weak systems are expected to affect the region intermittently over the next two weeks, potentially bringing snowfall to higher reaches.
“Given the prolonged dry spell of over 50 days, it is reasonable to expect some precipitation in January unless unusual conditions persist,” he added. (KNO)
