Jahangeer Ganaie
Srinagar, Jan 9: Winter snowfall remains the backbone of Kashmir’s agriculture, horticulture and overall water security, experts said, warning that a continued dry spell during the winter months could have far-reaching consequences for irrigation, drinking water supply and farm productivity across the Valley.
Agriculture specialists point out that around 60 to 70 per cent of orchards in Kashmir are rain-fed and heavily dependent on winter snowfall and subsequent spring rains.
They said that in the absence of adequate snow accumulation or abundant winter precipitation, the region faces a high risk of water scarcity during the crucial summer months, affecting not only farming but also domestic water availability and allied sectors.
Dr Mudasir Ahmad Dar, an environmental expert and lecturer in the School Education Department, said winter snowfall plays a decisive role in sustaining agriculture and horticulture in Kashmir.
“Snowfall acts as a natural reservoir. When it melts gradually during spring and summer, it ensures steady water availability for crops, orchards and drinking purposes,” he explained.
Dr Dar expressed concern over the below-normal or no snowfall witnessed so far this winter, warning that it could translate into acute water stress later in the year. “If snowfall remains deficient, water-intensive crops like paddy will be the worst hit. Paddy cultivation depends heavily on assured irrigation, and any disruption in water supply can severely impact both yield and livelihoods,” he said.
While noting that it is still early to draw firm conclusions, Dr Dar added that February, March and April are traditionally wet months in Kashmir. “We are hopeful that these months may compensate for the current deficit. Adequate rainfall or snowfall during this period can still help replenish water sources,” he added.
Dr Suhaib A Bandh, Assistant Professor of Environmental Science at S P College Srinagar, said prolonged dry weather poses a serious threat to orchards and fruit crops, which form the economic backbone of Kashmir. “Dry spells disturb natural irrigation cycles, reduce soil moisture and weaken trees, making them more vulnerable to pests and diseases,” he said.
He explained that insufficient winter moisture adversely affects root development and flowering in fruit trees, which can ultimately impact fruit size, quality and overall production. “Apple, pear and other fruit crops are particularly sensitive to moisture stress during critical growth stages,” he said.
Dr Bandh called for long-term adaptation measures, saying: “Strategic water management practices, promotion of drought-resistant crop varieties, efficient irrigation systems and climate-resilient agricultural techniques are essential to mitigate the impact of prolonged dry spells on Kashmir’s horticulture sector.”
Meanwhile, Dr Umar Mushtaq, a scientist at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (SKAUST), highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the current winter on the next farming season. “At this stage, it is difficult to precisely predict how the present dry conditions will affect next year’s crops,” he said.
Dr Mushtaq said that if sufficient precipitation occurs in the remaining winter days, the situation may still improve. However, he cautioned that a largely dry winter could have implications for fruit quality in the coming year. “If the entire winter remains dry, there are chances of fruit quality issues next season, depending on other climatic and agronomic factors,” he said.
Experts warn that the consequences of a snow-deficient winter go beyond agriculture. Reduced snowfall, they said, can lead to declining spring discharge in rivers, streams and springs, affecting drinking water schemes, hydropower generation and overall ecological balance in the Valley.
